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Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Hey NBA!! What is there to talk about?


Billy HunterPatrick McDermott/Getty ImagesClues to the negotiations' next steps from Billy Hunter's Thursday speech.

Leaders of the NBA and the Players Association are back at it once more, less than a week after the best efforts of one of the world's most respected mediators failed spectacularly. 

The issue dividing them was real: Owners are unwilling to give players more than 50 percent of basketball-related income (BRI) -- a number that already makes many in Stern's camp queasy. Meanwhile, the players have found a certain kind of religion around the idea of 53 percent of BRI. 

NBPA executive director Billy Hunter described the process of Thursday's ill-fated talks in some detail, and the crux of things was the league's unwillingness to go one penny above 50. 

After chastising the players for having "blood issues" in these talks, the owners have found theirs, and it's 50 percent of BRI. Hunter says that the league told him on Thursday that if the players were unwilling to accept that number, there was no point in talking further. 

"They said if we're going to meet, you've got to agree to accept 50-50," Hunter said Thursday. "As long as that edict is out there, then when are we going to meet?" 

Hunter says that when the league laid down the "take it or leave it" offer, he was incredulous, shocked. "I said are you serious? And they said 'yeah, we're serious.'" 

Assuming the league's firm stance on 50-or-bust has not changed -- league sources indicate it is as firm as ever -- what point could there possibly be to today's meeting? 

There are clues in Hunter's words from Thursday. 

An opening 
No one who was in the room when Hunter spoke last Thursday would accuse him of being weak. He was boisterous and loud. (In my recording of the press conference, Derek Fisher is nearly inaudible. Hunter, however, is clear as a bell.) 

But through all that tough talk, it's worth noting what Hunter did not say. He never said that the players wouldn't accept the owners 50/50 offer. 

What he said was that they'd never accept it ... while all those other issues were hanging around that could make things even worse for players. They would not accept 50/50 yet, in other words. But with some wins on the other issues ... Hunter hints 50 percent is within the realm of possibility. 

"We're at 53," Hunter said. "You're at 50. Maybe if we try to address the system, and some of those issues, maybe we can come back and look and maybe it will be more palatable to us after we have talked about the system." 

Speaking of the league, Hunter says: "We didn't ask them to move off of their number [of 50]. We didn't ask them to come up. We said let's go and talk about all these other issues. Let's go and talk about all these other things. The system is maybe even more important to the players than the dollars, if the system is right." 

Saying the other issues are more important is a strong sign that the players' 53 is negotiable. Also worth noting: The players have already made an offer that is lower than 53. In fact, they have made an offer that they say would pay players just 50 percent of BRI in a slow economy. But if NBA revenues climb, so would the players' share of BRI, to a maximum of 53. 

In short, that means the players have already offered something that sounds a lot like 50, which is another strong sign Hunter's union is not that far from 50. He also said the key issue was getting his players to come along: "You're at 50. In order to sell it to our membership, let's let it float. Let's let the economy and the revenue generation year in and year out determine what the number will be. It can be 50, 51, 52, or it can go as high as 53. But it couldn't go any lower than 50." 

On today's agenda 
Assuming the owners are as entrenched as ever at 50, what is there to talk about today? The system -- which is really a bundle of issues that determine exactly how hard the NBA's salary cap will be, and, related, how certain NBA players' incomes will be. 

Hunter's core concerns: "We're not prepared to let them impose a system on us that eliminates guarantees, reduces contract lengths, diminishes annual contract increases, eliminates the other [salary cap] exceptions, really restricts Bird [rights for teams to exceed the cap to re-sign their own free agents]. That's the kind of system they want. And we say no way. We have fought too long, and made too many sacrifices, to get where we are. We're talking about a system that's going to generate billions of dollars in the next few years and we were prepared to take a step back, to take a cut, to help them. We have presented them with a proposal that would address all of their losses, so that minimally they would have broken even. So that's where we are." 

Where they are is once again in a New York City hotel room, with something to talk about.

2011 Week 8 Power Rankings ...and my thoughts


A look at how the AFC North teams stand in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings. I don't have a vote, but I can certainly chime in:

STEELERS

Power Ranking: No. 5

Record: 5-2

Milly's Comment: The Steelers are in first place in the AFC North for the first time this season and move into the top spot in the Power Rankings for the division. The only debate is whether the Saints, who are also 5-2, should be two spots above Pittsburgh. But New Orleans has beaten Houston and routed Indianapolis by 55 points. The Steelers lost to Houston and edged Indianapolis by three points.

RAVENS

Power Ranking: No. 6

Record: 4-2

Milly's Comment: The Ravens slipped three spots after that dreadful offensive performance to the one-win Jaguars. The fall could have been worse (and probably should have been). Baltimore is the highest-ranked 4-2 team, which shows the level of respect from voters.

BENGALS

Power Ranking: No. 16

Record: 4-2

Milly's Comment: The Bengals moved up two spots while on the bye. Maybe it's a reward for theCarson Palmer trade. Still, Cincinnati remains the lowest 4-2 team in the rankings. The Bengals should be in the top 15. They are behind five three-loss teams: Oakland, Atlanta,New York Jets, Houston and Chicago.

BROWNS

Power Ranking: No. 24

Record: 3-3

Milly's Comment: It's understandable that the Browns would move down one spot with an ugly win over Seattle. The problem is they are the worst-ranked 3-3 team in the Power Rankings and it's not even close. In fact, Cleveland is the only team ranked below No. 21 that doesn't have a losing record. Philadelphia (2-4) and Carolina (2-5) are ahead of the Browns.

    Thursday, October 6, 2011

    3 Ways that the NBA talks could demise

    If we as basketball fans really are following this NBA collective bargaining closely, Tuesday would have been the day for whiplash.

    At long last, there was straight talk about serious movement in the offers. David Stern confidently announced that his owners could have been convinced to offer players 50 percent of basketball revenues -- long thought to have been the magic number. Stern also revealed the owners previously had given up fighting for rollbacks of existing contracts, contracts that are only partially guaranteed and, significantly, a hard cap. 



    Seriously, Stern... put a cork in it...seriously.  


    In other words, the owners were in the realm of reality on the money issue and had made important concessions on the players' "blood" issues.

    And yet ... on that very day, the talks broke apart entirely. Union executive director Billy Hunter says it could be months before the two sides meet again, and the league says it is less than a week from announcing the cancellation of the first two weeks of the regular season.

    What is a fan to think? There are three possibilities for what could happen next:
    Scenario 1: Bump in the road

    Stern says the discussion of splitting BRI in half took place informally, with key personnel from each side agreeing to attempt to go back to their respective groups to try to sell them on the deal. Stern says that while he was talking his owners into it, there was a knock on the door. It was the players, saying their group would not go for a 50/50 deal.

    In telling the story, Stern and his deputy, Adam Silver, expressed all manner of surprise and disappointment at this news.

    Meanwhile, a union source disputes some of the fine points, saying that first and foremost, it's a major breach of negotiating etiquette to publicly expose the contents of private sidebar conversations. The source also says (and the league denies) that the league did not exactly offer half. Instead, according to the source, it offered to guarantee players 49 percent of revenues, while giving them the right to earn as much as 51 percent of basketball revenues if players could command contracts worth that much.

    The union source also maintains that the players did not flatly reject the NBA's offer, as described, but offered another wrinkle in response, to reduce the minimum amount players would be guaranteed from their previous position of 53 percent. (To what, the source wouldn't say.)

    However, disgusted as union sources might be with the NBA's handling of the public relations, the fact is that the two sides are not, after all this, very far apart. In fact, they are much closer than they have ever been.

    And here's another wrinkle: Two sources in the room agree that the particular players present Tuesday (the list includes Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Theo Ratliff, Maurice Evans, Matt Bonner, Roger Mason Jr., etc.) were particularly strident, more strident than the average player.

    Garnett, in particular, has been mentioned as among the uncompromising.

    And 
    these are the players who did not play ball with the NBA's offer.

    In other words, maybe if the rank-and-file of the players' union were to fully understand the NBA's best offer, the mood would shift.

    The NBA says it needs a handshake deal by Monday or it will cancel the first two weeks of the season. Despite all the hard rhetoric, maybe that's still possible. The two sides were hundreds of millions a year apart Tuesday morning. Now they're down to a couple of percentage points. There is a deal to be had, if there's a will to make it happen.
    Scenario 2: Now is not the time

    Generally, it has been assumed that the passage of time hurts the players, who lose all their NBA income in a lockout. The owners, on the other hand, generally have massive income from other sources and in most cases are losing money by operating their NBA teams anyway.

    Billy Hunter says he knows some of the owners have long had the idea of getting players nice and desperate from missed paychecks before forcing them into tough deals.

    If feeling the pain of lost income, something that applies to all players and some owners, is the key to getting each side's best offer, maybe this can be a repeat of 1999, with both sides experiencing life without basketball for a few months before the bargaining gets serious enough to end with a handshake.
    Scenario 3: Pandora's box

    It does not come naturally to the supremely self-assured Stern to express worry or doubt, but he has long expressed the concern that if the players and the owners did not strike a deal to save the full season, it could indeed get very ugly.

    To the extent he has explained that comment, he has alluded to the two sides' positions "hardening," something Hunter also has discussed.

    But it's more than a hardening. There is also the matter of the courts. These two combatants have a lawsuit active in the Southern District of New York with a hearing set for Nov. 2. They have complaints before the National Labor Relations Board.

    And they have a band of agents agitating for decertification, which threatens to not just make talks with the league incredibly complicated and legalistic, but to destabilize the union entirely.

    Any one of those legal actions could lead to delays, hassles and indignation.

    Most notably, if the union were to deceptive, something Hunter has never been enthusiastic about, it likely would be against the will of the union. Which means players would end up being represented by a lawyer to be named later, likely, sources say, someone who has not been part of the process yet at all. That lawyer presumably would be selected by the agitating agents, and it's anybody's

    In other words, there could be an almighty tangle of judges, legal expenses and agitation.

    It is entirely possible that a negotiation that is paused over $100 million or so in revenues could disintegrate into $100 million or so in legal fees. 

    Monday, October 3, 2011

    Cowboys are sticking by their quarterback = More BLUNDERS to come

    Just a few weeks ago, Tony Romo presided over the worst fourth-quarter collapse in the Dallas Cowboys' illustrious franchise history.




    Now, he can add the worst overall collapse in franchise history to his resume after the Cowboys figured out a way to blow a 24-point, third-quarter lead.

    Tony Romo
    Romo...seriously?

    Detroit 34, Dallas 30.


    Unbelievable.


    Seriously, let that marinate.




    In the opener against the New York Jets, the Cowboys had been 246-0-1 with a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. Before Sunday's debacle, the Cowboys' biggest blown lead was 21 points, which last occurred in 1965 against the hated Washington Redskins.


    All you can do is shake your head.
    Really, you saw the best of Tony Romo in a brilliant first half as he pushed Dallas to a 20-3 lead that swelled to 27-3 after the Cowboys took the second-half kickoff and drove for a touchdown.
    Then we witnessed the worst of Romo. He threw three second-half interceptions -- two were absolutely awful decisions -- providing the catalyst for Detroit's comeback.


    He finished with 331 yards passing with three interceptions and three touchdowns.
    No way Jason Garrett's hair will remain red with a few more seasons of Romo as his quarterback. He'll either pull it out because Romo drives him crazy, or it'll turn white because Romo's poor decision-making is accelerating the aging process.


    Understand, this has nothing to do with Romo's toughness. Or courage. Or leadership. Romo, who took an injection to play Sunday, has removed any doubt about his intangibles in those areas by playing with a fractured rib the past three games.




    Actually, this is about a 31-year-old, nine-year veteran making the same dumb decisions season after season. There's no reason, if we're honest, to think it'll ever stop.
    All you can do is hope it does because Romo isn't going anywhere. The Cowboys have wrapped a Kevlar vest around his job security, and Jon Kitna is not a viable option because Romo is the better player.


    And even if the Cowboys chose to spend a first-round pick on a quarterback next season, that dude is not going to beat Romo out. You're living in fantasy land if you think someone is going to trade the Cowboys the rights to Andrew Luck.
    For the foreseeable future, Romo is your guy. Deal with it.
    "There's no issue about faith in Romo in any place in this organization. Period." Jerry Jones said. "We have a lot of faith in Romo. This doesn't touch that.
    "If you're going to try to make some plays, then you're going to have some bad plays. As Tony goes, we'll go."
    How comforting.
    "He knows that I believe in him," Garrett said. "Our staff believes in him. His teammates believe in him."
    Still, this loss begins and ends with Romo after his brilliance helped the Cowboys forge a huge lead and his interceptions resuscitated the Lions.
    A 1-yard touchdown pass to Jason Witten gave the Cowboys a 27-3 lead with 12:23 left in the third quarter, and when the Cowboys forced a punt the outcome seemed inevitable.
    Then Romo gave the Lions hope.
    He directed a sideline pass toward Dez Bryant, but linebacker Bobby Carpenter, a groomsman at Romo's wedding this spring, stepped into the flat and easily intercepted the pass.
    Carpenter, the Cowboys' first-round pick in 2006, returned it 34 yards for a touchdown.
    Seven plays later, Romo threw another interception.




    You can probably blame this one on Laurent Robinson because he let Chris Houston get inside him on a slant. Houston returned the interception 56 yards for a touchdown, pulling the Lions within 27-17.
    Suddenly, Detroit believed it could win. The Lions closed to 30-27 on a 51-yard field goal by Jason Hanson with 4:22 left, which gave Romo plenty of time to make one more bad decision.


    You simply can't throw that pass. Not in that situation. Not with a chance to still salvage the game.
    "I'm not taking anything away from them, they made a play when they had to," Romo said. "I shouldn't have allowed them to have that chance."


    We've heard it all before. No doubt, we'll hear it all again.