2011 March Madness: Amile's Bubble Watch - Breaking Down the ACC

In many ways, the ACC's three remaining bubble teams are back to square one. And yes, frequent Watch readers and ACC die-hards will note the use of the term "three." That's because Florida State receives the move into lock territory today; there is simply no way the Seminoles can miss the NCAA tournament at this point. (FSU's first ACC tourney game will come against either Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech; the Noles could lose to either and still look OK in the eyes of the committee.) But Clemson, Boston College and, yes, Virginia Tech all remain squarely on the bubble after last week's respective performances. The ACC tournament will mean everything to these teams, all of which probably need to get more than one win in the conference tourney to feel comfortable about their chances heading toward Selection Sunday.

Boston College [19-11 (9-7), RPI: 43, SOS: 24] Boston College needed a big win to get back in the thick of the bubble race last week, and while the victory at Virginia Tech wasn't exactly a signature one, it was a win against a fellow bubble team at the most crucial point in the season. Still, BC's only top-50 RPI win was against Texas A&M back in November -- and this team hasn't beaten anyone better than Virginia Tech or Maryland since then. In other words, you would think the Eagles still have a lot to prove to the committee. If (OK, when) they beat Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC tournament, Steve Donahue's team will play a hugely important quarterfinals matchup with Clemson on Friday. A loss there might officially send the Eagles to the NIT. A win would give them another victory over a fellow bubble rival, and it would give them the opportunity to take on North Carolina, a team they very nearly beat in Chapel Hill on Feb. 19.

Clemson [20-10 (9-7), RPI: 58, SOS: 81] A few weeks ago -- heck, even a week ago -- you wouldn't have considered Clemson the most likely of these three teams to get in the tournament. But it's starting to look that way, and Clemson has the Michigan Wolverines to thank. Michigan's surge into tourney contention has given this profile -- which once included Nov. 30's home defeat to the Wolverines as a "bad" loss -- an indirect boost. After Saturday's win over Virginia Tech, the Tigers finished with a nice-if-not-exciting 9-7 record in the ACC, snatching the last first-round ACC tournament bye in the process. Clemson will await the winner of Boston College-Wake Forest -- which, given how putrid Wake has been this year, is almost certain to be BC -- and if Clemson beats the Eagles, it would get yet another top-50 RPI win and another victory over a fellow bubble contender from its own league. Unlike BC and Virginia Tech, getting that one win would almost certainly be enough to get Brad Brownell's surprising, athletic team in the field for good. But Clemson is far from a lock -- a loss could potentially drag it back outside the tournament -- so even if that one win sounds simple enough on paper, it is also a crucial one.

Virginia Tech [19-10 (9-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 96] Selection Sunday just wouldn't feel like Selection Sunday if the Hokies weren't hovering hopefully around the bubble. This has become a bit of a yearly tradition in Blacksburg, and this year -- despite Tech's marquee win over Duke last Saturday -- is no different. That status comes courtesy of the two losses (vs. Boston College, at Clemson) the Hokies suffered in the final week of the regular season, losses that sapped any and all bubble momentum this team built with its court-storm-worthy win over the Blue Devils. The Hokies are now squarely on the bubble yet again, which means they obviously can't afford a first-round ACC tourney loss to Georgia Tech. If Seth Greenberg's inconsistent bunch wins that game, they'll get an excellent chance in the second round vs. Florida State, a team that will have the shine of a sure-thing at-large inclusion, but a team that also happens to be very beatable without forward Chris Singleton. (Though give the Seminoles some credit: They have played admirably without Singleton down the stretch.) In other words: If Tech thinks it deserves to be in the tournament, this week is the time to prove it.