If you heard a collective gasp for air around 9:30 p.m. ET Monday night, there's no reason to fret: What you heard was every team on the bubble, in unison, breathing a sigh of relief.
Why? Because right around then, Virginia Commonwealth -- the first potential mid-major bid thief of 2011 -- lost to Old Dominion 70-65 in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament title game. ODU didn't need to win its league's automatic bid; the Monarchs have been a surefire tournament inclusion for two weeks. VCU, on the other hand, has very little chance at an at-large bid, and had the Rams won they would have robbed the morass of bubble teams -- teams like Alabama, Colorado and Virginia Tech, among others -- of an all-important tournament spot.
Instead, ODU did everyone on the bubble a huge favor. So if your favorite team is still clawing tooth and nail to get into the tourney, you too can breathe a sigh of relief. After that, get together and sign a card for the Monarchs. On Monday night, Old Dominion did every shaky bubble team a big-time favor.
Will the bubble shrink today? Be sure to check back on my Bubble Watch -- which will be furiously updated every day this week until the tournament is set -- to find out.
Automatic qualifiers: 31
Total at-large bids: 37
At-large "locks" and "should be ins" in this week's Watch (minus one team from each multibid conference to represent automatic qualifiers): 26
Available at-large bids: 11
Teams currently with "work to do" in this week's Watch: 16
I hope this helps but if not, I will be going on live via Ustream to answer you questions tonight @ 930 pm CST.
Good luck!
Before I get to the rundown (which I will proceed tonight in Part 2) , some readers from my Facebook page have asked me to include some bubble math to help make the stakes a little clearer. I happen to be terrible at math, even math that requires nothing but addition and subtraction. (I'm a generous tipper, usually not by choice.) But the Watch is nothing if not service-y, so here's a quick breakdown. And keep in mind, for hypothetical purposes, we're assuming the tournament winners from the multibid conferences will come from the categories of "lock" and "should be in" (a big assumption). And, of course, if any bid thieves spring unforeseen surprises in the conference tournaments, expect the numbers to change a bit.Total bids: 68
Automatic qualifiers: 31
Total at-large bids: 37
At-large "locks" and "should be ins" in this week's Watch (minus one team from each multibid conference to represent automatic qualifiers): 26
Available at-large bids: 11
Teams currently with "work to do" in this week's Watch: 16
I hope this helps but if not, I will be going on live via Ustream to answer you questions tonight @ 930 pm CST.
Good luck!
